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When earthquakes struck southern Illinois and Indiana in April of this year, measuring 5.2 and 4.6 on the Richter scale, residents of the area were understandably surprised — it had been almost 200 years since the famous New Madrid Earthquake of 1812, famously rumored to have rung church bells along the Eastern seaboard.
To be sure, a 200-year respite and a low probability of major earthquakes justifies the Midwestern unpreparedness. The same cannot be said for Californians.
It's been only 14 years since the devastating earthquake at Northridge and 19 years since the San Francisco/Oakland quake in 1989, and California is at greater risk than ever for a catastrophic earthquake.
According to a study released by the U.S. Geological Survey on April 14, California has a better than 99 percent chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake within the next 30 years, and a 46 percent chance of having a magnitude 7.5 or higher quake. The deadly Northridge earthquake, for comparison, was a 6.7.
| The chance of another earthquake within three decades at least as powerful as the most costly in United States history is almost certain. |
In other words, the chance of another earthquake within three decades at least as powerful as the most costly in United States history is almost certain. In the face of such dire prognostication, you might expect Californians to be preparing for the worst as well as they can — at the very least, buying earthquake insurance for their homes.
Shockingly, this is far from the case. In 2006, only 12 percent of Californians purchased earthquake coverage, compared to 30 percent in 1996 in the emotional aftermath of the Northridge earthquake.
This means that, currently, millions of citizens are left unprotected: A regular home insurance policy will not cover earthquake damage. The entire cost of a destroyed home will be the burden of the homeowner, unless the house is protected specifically with earthquake insurance.
To encourage homeowners to buy earthquake insurance, the California Earthquake Authority (CEA) implemented a 22 percent rate cut. According to the Insurance Information Institute, the CEA credits a few quake-free years and a drop in the cost of reinsurance with allowing the rate reduction.
The CEA was created by the California state legislature in 1996 after the catastrophic earthquake in Northridge outside Los Angeles, and is a privately funded, publicly operated organization.
The USGS report indicated that Southern California was more likely than Northern California to be struck with a major earthquake. The Los Angeles-area risk of a 6.7 or greater earthquake is 67 percent; the San Francisco Bay area has a 63 percent risk of such a quake.
An earthquake with the destructive power of the 1989 or 1994 earthquakes could be economically cataclysmic with so many uninsured. California can only hope that the CEA’s rate cuts are enough motivation for its citizens to secure the necessary coverage to avoid such a disaster.
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